Walking by the lakeshore here in Maine the other day, I found a hornets’ nest larger than Saddam’s head. It was near a cabin where, some years before, the joists had been nearly chewed through by porcupines, bristling with quills like gunboats in the Gulf.
Like all animals, hornets and porcupines have sophisticated defense mechanisms. But where most animals respond to attacks by fleeing, burrowing, or biting, these two follow different doctrines. For the porcupine, the answer is deterrence. The woods are full of domestic predators who, like our dog, once tried to attack. Nothing like a nose full of quills to recalibrate one’s belligerence. Among wild animals, the word is out that this enemy is too well armed to make an attack even thinkable. That’s deterrence.
Hornets chose a different option: preemption. They don’t wait to be victimized; they swarm out to attack first. If I’m strolling past a hornets’ nest minding my own business, I figure I’m safe at 25 feet, endangered at 15, and under full Red Alert at 7. Nor do hornets care about my intentions. I could be charging with a firebrand to burn out the nest, or sleepwalking with no clue to my whereabouts. No matter. The doctrine of preemption glows crystalline in every hornet’s heart: Anything within 7 feet must be removed.
Washington is no stranger to these twin doctrines. For years, the porcupines have been in ascendancy. They’ve argued that any would-be belligerent will be cowed when they see America all abristle with defense. And since our enemies are rational animals who seek to minimize their own pain and prolong their own lives, they’ll weigh the risks and leave us alone.
Since 9/11, however, the hornets have carried the day. That became clear last week when the Bush administration’s plan for “counterproliferation” ended decades of Cold War deterrence by asserting that the nation has a “right to self-defense by acting preemptively” against external threats. Anchored in a 33-page document titled “The National Security Strategy of the United States,” which presidents must submit to Congress, the doctrine of preemption makes it clear that, particularly in dealing with terrorism, the United States intends to get there first by attacking anything that comes too close for comfort.
Why the shift? Because a core premise of the porcupines — that our enemies want to save their own lives — collapsed into rubble along with the World Trade Center. What’s to deter a suicide bomber? Certainly not the threat of pain, punishment, or destruction. We’re fighting a new kind of war these days, say the hornets, and the only way to be safe is to destroy them before they destroy you.
This shift from deterrence to preemption is no mere theory. Last week it was clearly visible in three related areas:
- Saddam in Iraq.
Is he really heading toward the West’s nest? Waiting to find out could be fatal, so send in the attack jets for the sting. Hence the administration’s request to Congress last week for authority for the president to use “all means he deems appropriate, including force,” to remove Saddam — whether or not he is actively developing weapons of mass destruction.
- Muslims in Lackawanna.
Earlier this month, federal agents rounded up eight American men of Yemeni descent in upstate New York who allegedly trained under al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Admitting they knew of no specific terrorist act the men were planning, federal agents acted preemptively, based on intercepted calls and other evidence.
- Zacarius Moussaoui in court.
Judge Leonie M. Brinkema, overseeing the trial of the only person charged in this country with the 9/11 attacks, has refused to make public several court filings containing Mr. Moussaoui’s inflammatory comments, fearing he could be using code to communicate with his al Qaeda colleagues.
These are three expressions of the same ethical dilemma. On one hand, it is right to protect the rights of individuals to speak freely, associate with whomever they will, think whatever they like, and remain innocent until proven guilty. On the other hand, it is also right to defend the community against horrendous acts of mayhem perpetrated by those who aren’t interested in saving their own lives and are therefore difficult to deter. Under the former logic, you watch and wait. Under the latter, you preempt. Which is the higher right?
In the animal world, porcupines and hornets coexist successfully. Add a new element — a hunter with no weapon more complex than a club — and the slow-moving, over-confident porcupines haven’t got a chance. Hornets, more adaptable, adjust to new elements by striking first.
In the policy world, add the new element of suicide and what once worked well may no longer be up to the task. Look for this long, slow shift from deterrence to preemption to throw up any number of tough ethical dilemmas as it ravels out to its conclusion.
(c)2002 by the Institute for Global Ethics