Ethics Newsline®

Poll Examines Public’s Perception of Unfair Campaigning

Jul 21st, 2008 • Posted in: Research Report

Gallup poll finds that ’solid majorities of Americans believe McCain, Obama will not use personal attacks in campaign’

From Gallup:

“Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain have both claimed that they will not engage in below-the-belt attacks during this race…. History has shown, however, that campaigns tend to get considerably more negative as Election Day approaches, so it is an open question as to whether the candidates will keep their promises for the duration of the campaign.

“A recent USA Today/Gallup survey shows that most Americans are at least somewhat optimistic that one or both candidates will follow through on that promise. But a variety of data show that many people view the tone of a race from a partisan perspective. As a result, there is likely to be little agreement about what constitutes fair or unfair attacks on the campaign trail once the general-election advertising season begins in earnest.

“In the June 15-19 USA Today/Gallup poll, Americans were asked about the likelihood that the presidential candidates would keep their promises to refrain from personal attacks….

“Thirty-six percent of respondents agree that Obama is ‘very likely’ to do so, compared with 27% who say the same about McCain. Combining the ’somewhat likely’ and ‘very likely’ responses yields a solid 73% and 68%, respectively, who think it is likely that the candidates will refrain from personal attacks. In other words, more than two in three Americans think there is a reasonable chance that each candidate will run a campaign focused on the issues….

“More than twice as many Republicans (40%) as Democrats (19%) think McCain is ‘very likely’ to conduct a campaign based only on the issues (along with 24% of independents). And while half (50%) of Democrats think Obama is ‘very likely’ to focus only on the issues, only 17% of Republicans agree, with independents falling in the middle at 38%.

“The partisan tilt of these results is consistent with data from past elections….

“For a different look at the question, I conducted an Internet experiment using a nationally representative sample of 425 American adults in November 2006. All respondents viewed the same 30-second attack advertisement against a fictional State Assembly candidate. The ad consisted of fairly standard negative advertising fare…. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of two ads: one where the sponsoring candidate was a Republican and the target was a Democrat; and the other, the same ad with the partisanship of the candidates reversed. When asked whether the advertisement was ‘fair,’ people who shared the partisanship of the sponsoring candidate were far more likely to think the ad was fair … than were respondents who shared the partisanship of the target of the ad…. In other words, simply switching the partisanship of the candidates significantly changed perceptions of the fairness of two otherwise identical advertisements….”