Partisans Losing Hold of Moderate U.S. Middle, Poll Finds
May 25th, 2009 • Posted in: Research ReportPew survey charting the rise of independents also finds that the “proportion of voters citing moral values as most important has declined sharply since 2004″
From the Pew Research Center:
“Centrism has emerged as a dominant factor in public opinion as the Obama era begins. The political values and core attitudes that the Pew Research Center has monitored since 1987 show little overall ideological movement. Republicans and Democrats are even more divided than in the past, while the growing political middle is steadfastly mixed in its beliefs about government, the free market and other values that underlie views on contemporary issues and policies. Nor are there indications of a continuation of the partisan realignment that began in the Bush years. Both political parties have lost adherents since the election and an increasing number of Americans identify as independents.
“The proportion of independents now equals its highest level in 70 years. Owing to defections from the Republican Party, independents are more conservative on several key issues than in the past. While they like and approve of Barack Obama, as a group independents are more skittish than they were two years ago about expanding the social safety net and are reluctant backers of greater government involvement in the private sector. Yet at the same time, they continue to more closely parallel the views of Democrats rather than Republicans on the most divisive core beliefs on social values, religion and national security….
“…Taking an average of surveys conducted this year, 36% say they are independents, 35% are Democrats, while 23% are Republicans….
“Republicans and Democrats hold increasingly divergent views about the role of government, the environment and many other issues. As the partisan divide widens, the overall course of the public’s thinking is being determined by the tilt in opinions among the growing number of independents, who have a more moderate ideological point of view….
“But independents continue to be much closer to Democrats than to Republicans with respect to social values, religiosity and beliefs about national security….
“What is clear is that the Republican Party is facing formidable demographic challenges. Its constituents are aging and do not reflect the growing ethnic and racial diversity of the general public. As was the case at the beginning of this decade, Republicans are predominantly non-Hispanic whites (88%)…. At the same time, the average age of Republicans increased from 45.5 to 48.3, while the average age of Democrats has remained fairly stable. For the first time in at least two decades, Republicans are older than Democrats on average.
“Republicans continue to be disproportionately comprised of Southerners (39%) and white evangelical Protestants (35%)….
“Fully 75% of Republicans today say that government regulation of business does more harm than good, up from 57% two years ago….
“There is no sign that the public is turning inward in response to difficult economic times. A larger share of Americans — and especially Democrats — completely agree that the U.S. should play an active role in world affairs….
“While opinions about global engagement and foreign affairs have not been affected by the recession, this is not the case with respect to environmental attitudes. The public continues to broadly support stricter environmental laws and regulation, but its willingness to pay higher prices, and suffer slower economic growth for the sake of environmental protection has declined substantially from two years ago….
“The values survey finds wide political and religious differences over traditional values and social policy issues, such as gay marriage. However, issues relating to religion and morality clearly have less political punch than during the 2004 election. The current survey finds that just 10% say they would consider moral values as the most important issue in their vote in a hypothetical presidential election….
“As the proportion citing moral values as most important has declined sharply since 2004, the economy and jobs have come to dominate the public’s concerns: 50% now point to the economy as most important compared with 21% of voters in the 2004 post-election survey….
“Moreover, over the past decade there has been erosion in the percentage of Americans holding conservative views on family, homosexuality and gender roles. The decline in social conservatism is a result of generational change. Younger age cohorts are less conservative than older ones…. Societal change in these values is mostly a consequence of newer generations replacing older ones.
“Following the election of Obama, blacks now have a more positive view of American society….”
For more information, see: Full press release from Pew, May 21 — Full text of report from Pew.
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